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Tomorrow's Euro Elections
May. 22nd, 2019 11:03 amTomorrow we Brits get to vote for (presumably) the last time in a european election (at least for a while). Everyone knows the chance of the MEPs serving for long is very unlikely. Thus it's just a poll on brexit.
Alas, it's a distorted poll.
The remain parties are split and the Torys aren't campaigning. Labour are still trying to play to both sides of the isle, a strategy which pleases nobody. Farage offers a simple one-issue vote option, realising more than anyone how to get what he wants out of this poll.
With Change UK squeezed out, if the Greens and Liberals could have formed a pact things may be better, but sadly not.
So my prediction is the the Liberal Democrats and Greens will make big gains (for them). But the media and the party leaders won't care because they will point to the Bexit party's gains as evidence that people want them to "get on with brexit". After all the council elections showed a remain surge and that was still their conclusion, so when the "brexit party" get the most seats it's even easier for them.
The key is that Tory voters will change their allegiance to the brexit party, whereas more Labour voters will remain loyal to theirs.
The best outcome is that the Labour vote erosion changes Labour's position, just as UKIP changed Tory policy to cause this mess. The probably effect of this election is to strengthen the hand of hard brexiters in the Tory leadership elections, and the knock on effects of that are chilling.
Alas, it's a distorted poll.
The remain parties are split and the Torys aren't campaigning. Labour are still trying to play to both sides of the isle, a strategy which pleases nobody. Farage offers a simple one-issue vote option, realising more than anyone how to get what he wants out of this poll.
With Change UK squeezed out, if the Greens and Liberals could have formed a pact things may be better, but sadly not.
So my prediction is the the Liberal Democrats and Greens will make big gains (for them). But the media and the party leaders won't care because they will point to the Bexit party's gains as evidence that people want them to "get on with brexit". After all the council elections showed a remain surge and that was still their conclusion, so when the "brexit party" get the most seats it's even easier for them.
The key is that Tory voters will change their allegiance to the brexit party, whereas more Labour voters will remain loyal to theirs.
The best outcome is that the Labour vote erosion changes Labour's position, just as UKIP changed Tory policy to cause this mess. The probably effect of this election is to strengthen the hand of hard brexiters in the Tory leadership elections, and the knock on effects of that are chilling.
